Surveys are tools of the current moment (not fortune tellers), and those tools have, on the whole, done a good job of forecasting Biden’s and the Democratic Party’s political fates over the past few years.

 Surveys are tools of the current moment (not fortune tellers), and those tools have, on the whole, done a good job of forecasting Biden’s and the Democratic Party’s political fates over the past few years.

Let’s start with the most recent election, when polling supposedly did poorly. It is true that some surveys underestimated Democratic candidates. The polls that meet CNN’s standards for publication, however, were quite good.

The national surveys looking at the generic congressional ballot had Republicans ahead by about 1.5 points over the last 21 days of the campaign. Republicans ended up winning the national House vote

 by a little less than 3 points. If you take out uncontested races – more Republicans than Democrats were unopposed in House contests last year – the final margin would probably have been closer to a 2-point Republican edge.

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